Introduction

Welcome to our comprehensive recap of the global stock markets for the week of June 13-20, 2025. At Link Financial Advisory we are committed to providing insightful and accurate market updates to empower our clients. This blog post offers a recap of domestic and international equities with an aim to highlight key market influences, provide actionable takeaways, and underscore the importance of long-term investing, all while integrating our commitment to personalized financial guidance in Missoula.

US Stock Market Performance

The US stock market exhibited a mixed performance during the week of June 13-20, 2025, navigating a complex landscape of geopolitical and economic factors. The following table summarizes the weekly performance of major US indices:

• S&P 500: The S&P 500 closed at 5,967.84 on June 20, 2025, down approximately 0.2% from an estimated 5,979.80 on June 13, 2025. This slight decline reflects early-week volatility offset by a partial recovery.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow remained flat, indicating resilience amidst market pressures, though exact closing values were not specified in available data.
• Nasdaq Composite: The Nasdaq gained 0.2%, driven by strength in technology stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector.

What Helped the Stock Market

Several factors provided support to the US and global stock markets during this period, contributing to stability and selective gains.

1. Federal Reserve Policy
   On June 18, 2025, the Federal Reserve announced its decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting with no change (T. Rowe Price). Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the economy’s solid position, noting the central bank’s readiness to respond to economic developments. The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections reaffirmed expectations for two interest rate cuts in 2025, signaling a supportive monetary policy environment. This stability bolstered investor confidence, as lower rates can enhance corporate profitability and stimulate economic activity.
2. Easing Geopolitical Tensions
   The week began with significant market turbulence due to the Israel-Iran conflict, which escalated on June 13, 2025, causing a sharp downturn. However, by June 16, 2025, diplomatic efforts and reports of Iran’s willingness to negotiate over its nuclear program helped ease concerns. This led to a recovery, with the S&P 500 rising 0.9% and the Nasdaq jumping 1.5% on June 16, contributing to the Nasdaq’s weekly gain.
3. Sector Resilience
   The technology sector demonstrated notable strength, with the Nasdaq Composite’s 0.2% gain driven by companies like AMD, which led a 3% rally in the PHLX Semiconductor Index on June 16, 2025. This resilience underscores the importance of sector diversification, as innovation-driven industries can outperform during periods of uncertainty.

What Hurt the Stock Market

Despite positive developments, several challenges weighed on market performance, contributing to volatility and selective declines.

1. Geopolitical Uncertainty
   The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict on June 13, 2025, triggered a significant market. This initial shock disrupted investor confidence and contributed to the S&P 500’s weekly decline, despite later recovery efforts.
2. Tariff Policy Uncertainty
   U.S. tariff policies, with an average effective rate of 15.6% as of June 2025, continued to create uncertainty (Charles Schwab). These tariffs, implemented under President Trump’s administration, have disrupted global trade, impacting companies like RH, which delayed product launches due to supply chain challenges. This uncertainty affected both domestic and international equities, contributing to cautious market sentiment.
3. Fixed Income Volatility
   The fixed income market experienced significant volatility, with 30-year Treasury yields peaking at 4.96% on June 16, 2025, before easing to 4.89% by June 20, 2025 (FRED). This rise, driven by concerns over potential tax-and-spending changes and their impact on the budget deficit, increased borrowing costs, which can pressure stock valuations and economic growth.

International Market Performance

Global markets presented a varied picture, with some regions showing resilience while others faced challenges. The following table summarizes key international indices’ performance for the week:

• Developed Markets (MSCI EAFE): The MSCI EAFE index, tracking developed market equities outside the US and Canada, declined by 1.5%, closing at 2,575.17 (Edward Jones). This downturn reflects broader concerns over global trade tensions and geopolitical risks affecting European and other developed markets.
• Japan (Nikkei 225): Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 1.5%, closing at 38,403.23 on June 20, 2025, up from 37,834.25 on June 13, 2025 (Yahoo Finance). This performance was supported by a weakening yen (JPY 145 against USD) and positive economic data, highlighting Japan’s resilience amidst global uncertainties.

American investors should note these regional variations, as they underscore the value of international diversification. Japan’s strength, for instance, offers potential opportunities for portfolio allocation.

Domestic Fixed Income Recap

The fixed income market saw notable volatility, particularly in longer-term Treasuries, driven by macroeconomic and policy concerns. Key data points include:

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: Stood at 4.38% on June 20, 2025, down from 4.46% on June 16, 2025 (FRED).
• 30-Year Treasury Yield: Peaked at 4.96% on June 16, 2025, before easing to 4.89% by June 20, 2025 (FRED). This level, while not exceeding 5% as previously suggested, remains high compared to recent years, reflecting concerns over fiscal policy and economic growth.

The rise in yields indicates higher borrowing costs, which can impact corporate investment and consumer spending. However, for income-focused investors, higher yields present opportunities in bonds and fixed income instruments. The volatility underscores the need for careful portfolio management, particularly for those with significant fixed income exposure.

Long-Term Perspective on the S&P 500

To provide context for short-term market movements, consider the S&P 500’s historical performance, which highlights the benefits of long-term investing:

• 1-Year Return: From June 20, 2024 (S&P 500 at 5,464.62) to June 20, 2025 (5,967.84), the S&P 500 returned approximately 9.21%.
• 5-Year Return: An average annual return of 16.43% reflects strong growth, driven by technology and innovation sectors.
• 10-Year Return: A 12.57% average annual return demonstrates consistent long-term gains.
• 20-Year Return: With a 10.36% average annual return, a $10,000 investment on June 20, 2005, would have grown to approximately $71,900 by June 20, 2025, assuming dividend reinvestment.

This long-term perspective is crucial for investors, particularly those managing 401(k) plans or personal portfolios, as it underscores the resilience of the market over time.

Key Takeaways for Investors

1. Diversification Across Assets and Regions: The mixed performance of US and international markets highlights the importance of diversification. Allocating across equities, fixed income, and regions like Japan can mitigate risk and capture growth opportunities.
2. Stay Informed on Global Events: Geopolitical developments, such as the Israel-Iran conflict, can significantly impact markets. Staying informed allows investors to anticipate and respond to potential risks.
3. Long-Term Focus: Despite short-term volatility, the S&P 500’s historical returns demonstrate the value of staying invested. A long-term perspective can help investors weather market fluctuations.
4. Professional Guidance: Navigating complex markets requires expertise. At Link Financial Advisory, our Missoula team offers tailored solutions for 401(k) benchmarking, personal financial planning, and wealth management, ensuring your portfolio aligns with your goals.

Call to Action

At Link Financial Advisory, we are dedicated to helping you achieve financial success. Our experienced advisors in Missoula specialize in 401(k) benchmarking, personal financial planning, and wealth management, providing personalized solutions for high-net-worth individuals, those inheriting wealth, and C-suite executives managing corporate retirement plans. Contact us today for a consultation to discuss how we can optimize your financial strategy. Follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook, and YouTube Shorts for regular market updates and insights designed to educate and engage our community. You can reach Robert directly by emailing him at Robert@LinkFinancialAdvisory.com